Holiday Travel Unwrapped! What to expect and how to hack the system.

What to expect at the airport this holiday season. Is “Air-maggedon” over? How are inflation - and maybe recession - affecting travel? How do airfares and hotel rates compare to prior years? We unwrap it all in our all-singing, all-dancing Holiday Extravaganza to rival the Macy’s Parade (not really). But we DO share really useful insider tips for how to navigate the crowds and travel better. Plus, did you know Black Friday and Cyber Monday apply to your vacations, not just the mall? Deal Guru Jessica Deverson has the list of holiday offers with some of the deepest discounts and most valuable freebies we’ve seen in years. Norwegian Cruise Line. G Adventures. Royal Caribbean Cruises & more. ‘Tis the season to travel!

The Holiday Travel Season and Health Safety

Welcome to No Tourists Allowed, a podcast where two recognized travel industry executives with a combined 69 years on the inside of travel and technology give up their secrets to the thing everyone wants to do. Travel better, pay less, and see more of the world. Enjoy today's episode.

Mike Putman: Hello everyone, I'm Mike Putman.

James Ferrara: And I'm James Ferrara and welcome to our holiday extravaganza. Mike, Macy's has the Thanksgiving Day parade and we've got this special broadcast kicking off the holiday travel season.

Mike Putman: I didn't think of it that way, but that's a nice way of putting it.

James Ferrara: You have your costume on?

Mike Putman: No, I have my pajamas on actually. I've been in bed with COVID for the last five days. So yes, I am still in my pajamas, but dutifully here behind the mic to share what I hope are some great travel tips for our eager audience out there.

James Ferrara: Absolutely. And we should start with first of all, Mike, sorry you're not feeling well. Everybody wishes you a speedy recovery. But I've been hearing more of that lately, and maybe some of you guys are too. We've had a couple of people at work contract COVID again. We're starting to all travel more and get together at large events again. It's getting to be cold weather in the Northeast where I am, and so people are congregating inside again. Inevitably we're spreading not just COVID, but colds and flus of other kinds as well. You would think we wouldn't talk a lot about this on a travel podcast, but we're very real here. I think it's a good opportunity to remind everybody to do what you do to protect yourself. For some of us that may be taking a vaccine, like the new bivalent vaccine that is intended to help against the later variations like Omicron. Or just washing your hands a lot, wearing a mask when you're in a crowd, and practicing social distancing. I would say let's not forget what we learned in the last couple of years. It is time to be prudent still.

Mike Putman: Oh, definitely. Definitely with the colder weather. For us in the travel industry, the last couple of months have been our conference season. James and I have been to our share of conferences and shook our share of hands and given hugs. That is what got me this past week at the Phocuswright conference in Scottsdale, Arizona. I was around a lot of people and I have been around a lot of people previously. I've had all the vaccines and boosters, and I still try to be cognizant of where I am and the circumstances. I even got a flu shot this year, which I really don't like. I don't typically get flu shots, but I was being a little extra careful this year. This new variant creeped up and jumped all over me. This new variant, by the way, is called the "ass kicking" variant. That is what jumped all over me and it put me in bed for five days. The AC variant, or AK variant for short.

James Ferrara: I use hand sanitizer so much. I have been at a lot of these events like you and I use hand sanitizer so much that I'm convinced I've burned a couple of layers of skin off my hands. I could commit crimes now and not leave fingerprints. Let's do a travel wrap-up. Last couple of months, where have we been, Mike?

Recent Travels and Industry Conferences

Mike Putman: Well, certainly we were together in Belfast, but I was in Finland and then from Finland boarded a ship, a brand new huge mega cruise liner, the Carnival Celebration. Incredible ship, by the way. I boarded it under construction from the shipyard and rode it over to Southampton, England, where she was debuted to the trade press and the world. Then she did her inaugural cruise to Miami. She'll be running out of Miami on week-long itineraries to the Caribbean. She is incredible, nothing like what you might think of in the old Carnival. Incredible food, beautiful, upscale looking ship, amazing technology, so check that out. Then I was in London for a couple of days at World Travel Market, which is probably the place to get COVID.

James Ferrara: Because that is a hotbed of COVID. There were fifty thousand people in the conference center in London and nobody wearing a mask. Not one person, and we were on top of each other. I was really surprised I didn't come away with it. But it was an incredible event with destination boards, tourism boards, suppliers, cruise lines, vacation companies, and airlines from all over the world in these vast halls and incredibly elaborate stands and booths. We really got to see what's going on in the world with travel, and that was Air Mageddon. I took the opportunity to pretend to be Mike Putman one night and I went to a Michelin-starred restaurant. This one was a famous Indian restaurant in London with a Michelin star, and I had a spectacular meal. We toasted you, Mike, at that meal.

Mike Putman: Well, I wish I would have been there for that piece of it. Good to hear. My travels have not been quite so frequent as yours, James. I know you've been gone most of the time. But we did a quick trip to Miami, and I did a golfing trip with some friends over a weekend and this trip to Arizona. I think that's been about it.

James Ferrara: Phocuswright is where all the senior-level travel technology people get together. It's kind of the one once-a-year big deal. It was a great conference. What resort were you at in Arizona?

Mike Putman: I was at the JW Marriott in Desert Ridge, which is a nice but remote venue with limited dining options. I think I would have done it in a different place or would have had some better opportunities. The same event was at the Diplomat last year. When you go to these conferences, you don't rent a car necessarily. You just get an Uber or a taxi, go to the resort, work the conference for two or three days, get an Uber back to the airport, and go home. When you're in these remote big resorts, it's not reasonable that you can walk anywhere. You're stuck there unless you want to grab an Uber for dinner.

James Ferrara: And in these days when hotels and resorts have closed some of their dining venues still or limited their services, that can be really tough. That's happened to us a few times.

The Controversy of Hotel Resort Fees

Mike Putman: That was the case here. I did want to tell you one thing that we've talked about on previous podcasts: the resort fee that the hotel charged. As our listeners know, I'm a big Marriott fan and I really do like the brand. JW Marriotts are one of their better ones. But this particular property had a forty-five-dollar per day resort fee, which is ridiculous. When you check in, they sheepishly go over it. They have these cards, and I brought you one back James, you'll love this. It's like a double-sided business card that justifies why they're charging you forty-five dollars a day. To me, it is just ridiculous. It covers things that would normally be at no charge for any resort.

James Ferrara: Sometimes they say like a bottle of water in the room or free Wi-Fi.

Mike Putman: Right, free Wi-Fi or a lounge chair if you want to go to the pool. Really? If I don't pay the fee, there won't be a lounge or I can't go to the gym? This is forty-five dollars. It's not ten dollars like the Vegas hotels started at a few years back. This is getting into meaningful money. For a resort like this, which caters to conventions, it's just another little charge that the corporation is going to pick up. To me, it is an unjust way of charging people money and avoiding paying travel agents commissions on those additional funds.

James Ferrara: It's just additional revenue for the hotel. It's a money grab. The Department of Transportation and certain congressmen have announced investigations into these fees in the last year or two because they are getting out of hand. It appears to be a non-transparent way to advertise the cost of a hotel because they don't include these fees; they add them later. Some people in the government have charged that the disclosures are not properly done and people don't know they are being obligated to these fees. When you think of a hotel room that might cost two hundred and fifty dollars a night, that fee is another twenty percent. My fee was even higher at the hotel I stayed at in South Beach. It was even more than that on a daily basis. They made some weak attempt to justify the fee with this meaningless list of amenities that you would expect from a good hotel anyway. I think this practice is not long for life. I think there's going to be either some regulation or some pressure from the government to change it. It's something for our traveler listeners to be aware of. When you commit to a hotel, you want to make sure you're reading the fine print so you know everything you're going to be charged.

Government Scrutiny of Travel Service Fees

Mike Putman: I'll tell you another example, James. President Biden spoke about this while you were on vacation in Europe. There was a luncheon he hosted and he had some strong pieces of his agenda talking about these hidden service fees. The other way this impacts families is if you were a single mother and you wanted to take your child on a flight. You go on a particular airline—Frontier's not the only one, but they're pretty tough on this—and you book your tickets. The price is $99 each way. Then you have to pay an additional fee if you want to sit by your child. Let's say it's a four-year-old child. There's no provision that allows you to get a seat beside your child unless you pay for it. In those situations, that's not a service fee. I think most people would consider that a required fee, which has a different set of rules governing where that is disclosed.

James Ferrara: The disclosure should be done earlier in the funnel or prior to the customer making a booking. All of the necessary fees and all of the required fees have to be included in that total price and disclosed right up front. When people are doing a search, it's evident to them what the real cost is.

Mike Putman: An airline could justifiably say it is not a requirement that you sit by your three-year-old kid, but that's not real world. No one's going to go on a flight and sit ten rows from their three-year-old. That doesn't make sense. They can say you can get somebody to switch with you, but it's not the consumer's responsibility to ask someone to switch seats just so they can sit by your child. Therefore, it is a required cost which has to be disclosed upfront.

Inflation and Demand in the Holiday Market

James Ferrara: Absolutely agree. Speaking of the real world and our big holiday extravaganza, let's talk about what's going on out there. It's a bit of a good news, bad news situation. The good news is that despite inflation, which has been significant in the last year or two, including a raise in airline ticket prices, demand is high. I took a look and we have an average 20% increase in the cost of flights around Thanksgiving versus last year. That is on top of last year's increase. There is a forty percent increase in the airfares around the December holidays. Despite inflation in all categories of our lives and even talk of a coming recession, it does not appear to be deterring travelers. Not this holiday season, not next year, and certainly not this fall. We're seeing record numbers. The Thanksgiving weekend will be essentially the same as 2019, pre-pandemic. There are some analysts who think it's going to be even bigger. Planes are full, airports are full, people are traveling, and we're not seeing any indication of an effect from this economy. Don't you think, Mike?

Mike Putman: I would say my belief is that we would be well ahead of 2019 pricing. The total revenue might be the same, but the price per flown seat mile is going to be way up there. I looked to change my flight coming back from Phoenix to Greenville, and it was going to be twenty-one hundred dollars for a coach ticket one way. That's ridiculous. During the summer, I flew to Scotland and back in business class for twenty-one hundred dollars. These prices are insane, but the planes are full. The airlines have figured out that they can constrict capacity. They can blame it on lack of staff, and I'm sure there's some truth to that, but they can constrict capacity and the demand is there. Same with hotels. I was on a call this morning with another major OTA and they were telling us that there's a lot of hotels in London that are "making floors dark." They're taking two floors out of their inventory, keeping their average daily rates higher, and servicing fewer people while making the same revenue.

James Ferrara: That's amazing. I've always said that when the economy turns, people may give up their kitchen renovation, but they're not going to give up their vacation or their holiday. I think we see it over and over again. There may be some change in spending. Some people will decide to spend less, reduce the quality of their accommodations, or maybe even the length of their stay to tighten their budget. I wouldn't be surprised to see that, but we are not seeing any cancellations or postponements that we can tie to economic conditions.

Mike Putman: One of the things that was discussed discreetly amongst some of us at the conference was that Q1 occupancy rates are surprisingly very low. There's been some predictions that ADRs are going to drop significantly in Q1 for Q1 travel. There wasn't really a cause and effect, but some of the larger distributors of hotel rooms had come to this conclusion because they see these forecasts well in advance. Hopefully, we'll see some of these prices get back to normalized pricing at the beginning of the year.

Consumer Sentiment and Travel Priorities

James Ferrara: ASTA did a survey just to support what we're saying here. They did a consumer survey just a couple of weeks ago and they found that seventy-seven percent of Americans would rather take a vacation than buy a computer, a television, a car, or a gaming console. Seventy-five percent intend to spend more in 2023 on travel than they did before the pandemic. And forty percent of respondents said that nothing is going to stop them from taking a vacation.

Mike Putman: I fit into all those categories. I agree with all of that, for sure.

Operational Forecasts and Peak Travel Advice

James Ferrara: So that's what's happening. People are out there traveling, but at the same time, it could be creating some friction in prices and occupancy. The other thing we haven't talked about so much is crowds. Earlier in the year, we had those Armageddon weekends in the spring and in June. People have asked me what's happening now with that. One thing I can tell you is that the number of complaints, cancellations, and delays has dropped to about a third of what it was. The airline industry has recovered on the operational side quite a bit. There are more people back in jobs and more planes back in the sky. There was also a lot of regulatory pressure from the government. There were threats of fines. Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, and a couple of other activist senators jumped in and threatened draconian measures against the airlines if they didn't get their act together. The Department of Transportation put up a website that compared the customer service policies of major airlines, which put them in competition with each other. I think that has contributed also. I don't expect the kind of Air Mageddon weekends and days that we had earlier in the year. But I would caution you that we do know what the peak days are around the holidays. If you're planning on returning on Sunday, that is the absolute highest traffic day around Thanksgiving. Get to the airport early, travel light, and have the right expectation for that day. In December, I think we face a special situation because December 23rd is typically the busiest day around the Christmas holidays, and this year that falls on a Friday. That's a double whammy. Fridays tend to be one of the worst days for air traffic control, delays, and cancellations. If you do have to travel on any of these days, I suggest you travel early in the week and early in the day. Those two strategies will help you avoid the peak times.

The Importance of Renewing TSA PreCheck

Mike Putman: Absolutely. The airports are really hectic over the holidays because everybody's trying to get those last couple of days with their friends and family. Early in the week is good. If you're going to a part of the world that's going to have potential weather, like the Northeast, you want to start your travels as early as possible so you can buffer in time to get a later flight should your flight be cancelled. Flights that require connections add to the complexity. Speaking of delays, I will tell you one tip for our listeners: if you have TSA PreCheck, which is part of the Global Entry package, it is really important to renew those. I've had it for years, and over the period of COVID they kind of waived the fees or the application process. Mine ended up expiring. It expired on my birthday in October, and I did not get the email or didn't pay attention to it. I went back to renew it and there are no renewal appointments for the next twelve months. That means I've got to get in line with the commoners, take my socks and shoes off, and take my electronics out. Just one tip: log on to the Customs and Border Protection Trusted Traveler Program site to find out when your renewal is. You do not want to miss this. It's a very small investment for anyone that travels. It saves a lot of time and frustration, and you don't have to walk around where everybody's gross feet have been walking.

Capitalizing on the Strong US Dollar Abroad

James Ferrara: One of the reasons that we're getting so much demand in travel is that the US dollar is continuing to stay record strong against the Euro in Europe and the Pound in the UK. During the pandemic, those European capitals that are typically at the top of the list, like London, Paris, and Rome, disappeared. Nobody could go. We saw them come roaring back this year. Starting in the summer and into the early fall, the dollar came to parity with the Euro, like one for one. That hasn't happened in over twenty years.

Mike Putman: It didn't quite come to parity with the Pound. It's at about a dollar twenty per pound today. In days gone by, I have been there when it's a dollar eighty-five per pound. A dollar fifty was common for a long time. It's still like a twenty or thirty percent discount when you're spending dollars. It's even more so with the Euro. One thing people don't understand is that a lot of travel experiences are priced in dollars to begin with, so you're really not getting the benefit of that right now. Those prices were determined eighteen months ago, especially for packaged holidays and tours.

James Ferrara: Where you really feel it, where you feel like a rich man, is when you are shopping in those destinations or you're going out to dinner. For me, that's where the difference is really being made. It's a bit of a psychological syndrome. Because I feel like the exchange rate is so much in my favor, I'm spending more. I didn't know that's possible.

Mike Putman: When I was in Scotland this summer and then in Ireland, you felt like you had a discount card with you. You pull out your credit card, they charge you, and you look at your phone and see what they charged in dollars. You're like, "Wow, this is great." The other thing to consider too is that no tipping is expected, certainly not at the degree it is in the US. On a hundred-dollar tab, you might tip someone ten dollars in Europe, which would be acceptable. Here, they'll start tapping their hand on the tip jar if you don't give them twenty percent.

The Resurgence and Value of the Cruise Industry

James Ferrara: We also have cruise which has come barreling back. For the first time, I can say that we are a hundred percent recovered on our cruise market from 2019, and we are going to surpass it in 2023. All those people flooding back into the marketplace when they were gone is making a big difference. Cruisers were unable to cruise for a long time until earlier this year. All those same people have to fly and stay at hotels usually when they cruise as well. I've been asked why cruise is so resilient. After being shut down for two years, what other industry recovers like this? I think it's because of the unbeatable value proposition of a cruise. You get your accommodations, your cabin, your food, your entertainment, your activities, and your transportation all rolled up into a daily spend. The per diem is what some people spend on one dinner going out. The value of a cruise is incredible, and we know from the return rate that the satisfaction people feel with a cruise holiday is incredibly high.

Mike Putman: I would say there is an emotional connection with people that enjoy cruising that's far greater than any other type of travel experience. You might find a couple of resorts, like the Sandals Resorts, that have the same connections. They do a really good job supporting a loyalty program and making you feel welcome back. The cruise lines do as well. It is also interesting for people who've never been on a cruise—once they've been on a cruise, how many of those people convert to a "cruise person." A cruise person is typically taking four cruises out of their next five vacations. As you firsthand know, James, there is all this great new product being put out in the marketplace. They did not stop building these ships, which to me was really gutsy. Each ship costs about a billion and a half dollars. These were companies that had empty vessels all over the world, and they continued to put the capital in and build these magnificent ocean liners. Kudos to the cruise lines for having the foresight that we were going to get through this. Thank you to them for continuing to make the investment because now we've got lots more available spaces to sell on these beautiful, idyllic floating resorts.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday Travel Savings

James Ferrara: Charlie Funk gave me a little bit of coaching about the podcast. He said the experience is so immersive and all-encompassing, and that makes it unique. The hardware and the new ships show real faith in the marketplace. But seventy-five percent of American travelers have never been on a cruise. That's still an enormous number. We gotta get you guys all out on a cruise. And to do that, Mike, it's time to bring on our deal guru. We're approaching Black Friday. Everyone knows that's the biggest retail day of the year, and that extends to the travel industry as well. It's not just stores or Cyber Monday online; it's also huge travel sales, which began early this year. To talk a little more about that, let's bring on our favorite guest and deal guru, Jessica Deverson.

Jessica Deverson: Well thank you and hello. Happy Thanksgiving in a couple days. Speaking of Black Friday deals, we have a ton available in the travel industry right now. Whether you've had your eye on a very specific cruise, you're thinking about touring in Australia next year, you want to plan a family vacation for 2024, or maybe you want to plan a secret getaway for yourself over the New Year, there is literally something for everyone. There is a deal on all things travel right now, so it is a phenomenal time to book. Usually, I go in-depth and explain brands, but this time there are so many deals that I just wanted to give you a handful of offers so you can get an idea of what's out there. Starting off with Celebrity Cruises, they have a Black Friday deal right now of up to 75% off the second guest. You'll also save up to eight hundred dollars per stateroom and get up to $800 on-board credit per stateroom. This is one of their biggest Black Friday sales. Next up we have Holland America Line. Their Black Friday sale is up to 40% off, including crew appreciation. If you don't know what the crew appreciation is, basically that's prepaid gratuities. That's usually a huge chunk of what you spend on a cruise, so it's a really great value-rich offer.

James Ferrara: While you're paused for a minute, those are two of my favorite cruise lines. They are premium, which means they are upscale, stylish, and have excellent quality. These are not your average cruise lines. Celebrity has the best design out there in the cruise industry, and to have this level of discounting going on is amazing.

Jessica Deverson: They definitely have, and with every single travel supplier you could probably think of participating in Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, it's just a really great time to book. Some of these deals are as far out as 2025 travel. Like I said, put something on the books for every year from now until 2025 and you'll have plenty of time to pay it off or change it.

James Ferrara: I think that's also something different this year. A lot of times the Black Friday travel sales are for close-in travel, like last-minute stuff. Here you've got offers that go through to 2025. At InteleTravel, we offer monthly payment for travel. For someone who's planning a big vacation, which is often one of your biggest expenditures of the year, there are now financing plans available where you can just pay monthly.

Jessica Deverson: Those are a really great way to buy up. Maybe you typically book an ocean view and this time you're looking for that balcony or suite cabin. It's a good way to afford that because you're making smaller payments all along the way. In the cruise realm, we also have NCL, Norwegian Cruise Line. They are well known for their freestyle cruising. They have a Black Friday deal they're calling their greatest deal ever. Second guests will sail free and then you'll also get up to free airfare depending on the cruise you book, free unlimited open bar, free specialty dining, free excursions, free Wi-Fi, and free third and fourth guests. With all that free stuff, I'm not really sure what else there is to pay for except for the cruise itself.

James Ferrara: Gifts in the gift shop are not free.

Worldwide Land Tours and Adventure Offers

Jessica Deverson: To balance out the three cruises, I wanted to give you three land tours. First up we have Trafalgar. They're featuring 303 land trips in 72 countries across seven continents. You'll save 15% on worldwide trips right now. These trips include anything from Italy to the highlights of Spain and Portugal, national parks in the US, wonders of ancient Egypt, and splendors of Japan. Then also there's Insight Vacations. That's a more upscale premium luxury brand of guided travel, and they also have savings of 15% on premium tours. They plan out how you spend every moment and want to make every moment very special.

James Ferrara: You said 303 tours to over seventy countries. I'm going to make a special announcement, a special offer. Anyone who takes all 303 trips will get a free turkey from Mike and I and Jessica.

Mike Putman: What is the deadline? Because I'll go for it.

James Ferrara: You, I'm a little afraid of you. You would do it.

Jessica Deverson: Last but not least is G Adventures, one of the best well-known small group travel companies. For the rest of November, you can save up to 30% off on a massive number of their best-selling adventures across the world. That includes Antarctica expeditions, which are really big right now. If you're looking to travel a little later, you're going to save up to 10% on select trips through 2023. Whether you're looking for active adventures, zen wellness trips, or "book your bubble" family trips, G Adventures is a really great company. I'm outlining six travel brands here, but we have brands like Universal Studios, some specializing in tours in Ireland, Carnival Cruises, Royal Caribbean, Princess, Oceania Cruises, and Viking. Then you're looking at river cruises with AmaWaterways, Viking again, and Scenic. It's just a really great time to look into travel.

Reflections on Revenge Travel and Final Wishes

James Ferrara: That is excellent, Jessica. Thank you so much. I'm going to be on Fox News tomorrow talking about holiday travel. I was on Bloomberg News on Friday and coming up is Cheddar News. Everyone wants to talk about holiday travel in the media right now. One of the questions to me was whether traditional retailers, the big stores, have to worry this year. Travel prices and airfares are inflated, yet all the statistics say people still intend to travel more than they did prior to the pandemic.

Jessica Deverson: I think that "revenge travel" is still happening. It's not letting up. People realize coming out of the pandemic that travel makes them happier and brings them closer to their family. I don't think it's taking away from retail because it's two different products and experiences. People are willing to spend the money on things that matter most to them, whether it is items or experiences.

James Ferrara: I agree. We quoted some statistics earlier from ASTA about how many Americans will spend money on travel over purchasing any of those other things or over renovating their kitchen this year. They just will not give up their trips. We're going to conclude this holiday extravaganza. I want to wish you all, if you're here in the US celebrating, to count your blessings. Please include amongst them the ability to travel and the freedom to travel this beautiful world. Please protect it. Travel responsibly and thoughtfully, and travel in a way that you get a real authentic experience. Have a happy Thanksgiving. We're thankful for you, our listeners here at No Tourists Allowed.

Mike Putman: Thank you, everybody.

James Ferrara: Thank you for listening to No Tourists Allowed. No Tourists Allowed was produced by the Greenville Podcast Company. See you next week for another episode.